Botswana could be forced to import even more maize and sorghum from neighbouring South Africa, with experts predicting a looming shortage of grain in the country.
According to the Chairperson of Pandamatenga Commercial Farmers Association (PCFA), Ryan Neal, they are anticipating very low yields this year.
This was blamed on the dry weather experienced during the ploughing season, with below-average rainfall affecting production.
Frustratingly, this comes after the exact opposite occurred the year before, when too much ‘Pula’ fell.
“Remember last year we experienced flooding which delayed the ploughing season. This year, there’s no rain, this is the situation we find ourselves in. It’s either there’s too much rain, or very little rain; these are the signs of global warming,” warned Neal.
“We are going through a drought and it is worrying,” Neal told Voice Money.
“Panda farms produce 80 percent of Botswana’s total grain harvest, and if there’s shortage this year, the country will have no choice but to import more grains from South Africa,” added the PCFA Chairperson.
Botswana’s 2022 cereal production was recorded at 80, 000 tonnes, well below the 2021 bumper harvest of 122, 201 tonnes according to the World Bank collection of development indicators.
Unlike Neal’s gloomy on-the-ground assessment, The World Bank estimates that crop yields will only fall to slightly below‑average levels, due to high temperatures and low rainfall amounts in January and February, an important period for grain development.
Cereal imports were forecast at 370 000 tonnes, an 8 percent decline compared to the five‑year average level reflecting the large domestic production in 2022.
However, despite the forecast for reduced import quantities, the total import bill is expected to increase year on year in 2022/23, owing to the elevated global prices of cereals and energy.
According to the latest data by Statistics Botswana, the value of cereal imports represented 20 percent of the total food bill in May 2022, compared to 15 percent in May 2021, primarily reflecting a significant increase in the cost of importing wheat, largely sourced from or through South Africa.